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NBA Finals Statistical Analysis: East vs. West |
By Jeff Zell WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer Throw out the teams, the coaches, the players, it’s not like they matter. Check the size of Shaq, Dirk’s jumper and Avery Johnson’s whiny voice all at the door. All we need are statistics, cold-blooded statistics. Start sizing up the rings right now. Well, maybe not. Here’s to statistical nuances that might leave you scratching your head. Conference Records: The win-loss record of an entire conference plays a significant role in how the conference champion fares in the NBA Finals. Whether it’s having the battle-tested mentality on the way to the championship or just the daily grind of playing against better teams, the conference with the best season win percentage has won the NBA title 11 of the past 13 years. The 2004 Pistons and the 1999 San Antonio Spurs were the only ones to defy the odds. And for the record, the 1999 season was shortened due to the NBA lockout that canceled the first four months of that season. This season, the West held a 621-588 overall record, compared to a 588-642 East overall record.
Year Wins Losses NBA Title
2006 East 588 642 ?
West 621 588
2005 East 584 646 West
West 636 573
2004 East 559 671 East
West 630 518
2003 East 575 655 West
West 614 534
2002 East 593 637 West
West 596 552
2001 East 566 664 West
West 623 525
2000 East 598 632 West
West 591 557
1999 East 379 371 West
West 346 354
1998 East 648 582 East
West 541 607
1997 East 647 583 East
West 542 606
1996 East 619 611 East
West 570 578
1995 East 550 598 West
West 557 509
1994 East 562 586 West
West 545 521
1993 East 583 565 East
West 524 542
Advantage: Dallas
Free Throw Champion:
Believe it or not, the regular season free-throw percentage champion plays a quirky role in the NBA Finals. Yes, Steve Nash and his 92.11 percent free throw shooting this season were eliminated in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals. However, in eight of the past 10 seasons, whichever player won the free-throw title, a team from the opposing conference player’s team has gone on to win the NBA title. Wait … what? That means players the Jeff Hornaceks, Chris Mullins, Allan Houstons and even the Mahmoud Abdul-Raufs have been of some importance in their careers.
Free Throw Champion
Team (Conference)
NBA Champion Conference
2006
Steve Nash
Phoenix (West)
?
2005
Reggie Miller
Indiana (East)
West
2004
Peja Stojakovic
Sacramento (West)
East
2003
Allan Houston
New York (East)
West
2002
Reggie Miller
Indiana (East)
West
2001
Reggie Miller
Indiana (East)
West
2000
Jeff Hornacek
Utah (West)
West
1999
Reggie Miller
Indiana (East)
West
1998
Chris Mullin
Indiana (East)
East
1997
Mark Price
Golden State (West)
East
1996
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf
Denver (West)
East
Advantage: Miami
Meaningless Game
The midseason All-Star game has a bearing on the NBA champion. It’s not as overwhelming as the MLB midseason classic, which determines home-field advantage in the World Series, but statistics do show a sign of correlation with a NBA title. Seven of the last 10 NBA All Star game winners have seen their conference go on to win the NBA title. Even though stars like Kobe, T-Mac, LeBron and A.I. just goof around on the court, in the books it matters a tremendous amount. The Eastern Conference won a snoozer this year, 122-120. Snoozer, because the game is a joke, not the score.
Advantage: Miami
Defense Wins Championships:
All right, enough of those obscure statistics. I’ll give one that will allow you to actually use the teams involved in the final contest. If you’ve ever played a competitive sport, whether it’s basketball, football, baseball or hockey, you’ve heard the old adage, “Defense wins championships.” Unless you have Kobe and Shaq on the same team, it usually holds true. Eight of the past 11 NBA titles have been won by the team that has held opponents to fewer points-per-game during the regular season. Kobe and Shaq’s Los Angeles Lakers defied the odds in 2002 and 2001, but it was the Spurs who defied the defensive odds (90.4-to-90.1) in 2003 to win the NBA championship. This year Dallas gave up 93.1 points-per-game to opposing teams, compared to the Heat’s 96.0.
Year Teams Opp PPG NBA Title
2006 Dallas 93.1 ?
Miami 96
2005 Spurs 88.4 Spurs
Pistons 89.5
2004 Lakers 101.5 Pistons
Pistons 84.3
2003 Spurs 90.4 Spurs
Nets 90.1
2002 Lakers 101.8 Lakers
Nets 99.6
2001 Lakers 105.6 Lakers
76ers 99.5
2000 Lakers 98.4 Lakers
Pacers 103.5
1999 Spurs 95.1 Spurs
Knicks 97.3
1998 Bulls 99.7 Bulls
Jazz 105.4
1997 Bulls 102 Bulls
Jazz 104.3
1996 Bulls 101.2 Bulls
Seattle 101.8
1995 Rockets 107.3 Rockets
Magic 557
Advantage: Dallas
Updated on April 24, 2006 7:24 pm EST
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